A Comparison of the Predictive Power of Anthropometric Indices for Hypertension and Hypotension Risk

BACKGROUND AND AIMS It is commonly accepted that body fat distribution is associated with hypertension, but the strongest anthropometric indicator of the risk of hypertension is still controversial. Furthermore, no studies on the association of hypotension with anthropometric indices have been reported. The objectives of the present study were to determine the best predictors of hypertension and hypotension among various anthropometric indices and to assess the use of combined indices as a method of improving the predictive power in adult Korean women and men. METHODS For 12789 subjects 21-85 years of age, we assessed 41 anthropometric indices using statistical analyses and data mining techniques to determine their ability to discriminate between hypertension and normotension as well as between hypotension and normotension. We evaluated the predictive power of combined indices using two machine learning algorithms and two variable subset selection techniques. RESULTS The best indicator for predicting hypertension was rib circumference in both women (p = <0.0001; OR = 1.813; AUC = 0.669) and men (p = <0.0001; OR = 1.601; AUC = 0.627); for hypotension, the strongest predictor was chest circumference in women (p = <0.0001; OR = 0.541; AUC = 0.657) and neck circumference in men (p = <0.0001; OR = 0.522; AUC = 0.672). In experiments using combined indices, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for the prediction of hypertension risk in women and men were 0.721 and 0.652, respectively, according to the logistic regression with wrapper-based variable selection; for hypotension, the corresponding values were 0.675 in women and 0.737 in men, according to the naïve Bayes with wrapper-based variable selection. CONCLUSIONS The best indicators of the risk of hypertension and the risk of hypotension may differ. The use of combined indices seems to slightly improve the predictive power for both hypertension and hypotension.